The WSJ interview with Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices told me we’re not alone in our confusion. According to Dr. Shiller, the market may be improving, then again we may be in for a “double-dip.” He also talks about the high-end market being vulnerable for the next wave of foreclosure activity.
This fits with what I’m seeing “at the street level” on Kauai, especially with the North Shore agricultural estate homes. The following charts show Kauai saturation levels by market segment, meaning the time it will take to sell what’s currently listed (ranging from 2-7 years for above $500K);
- Kauai Residential Saturation Rates – in years
- Kauai Residential Saturation Rates Under $500K – in months
Kauai is such a small market, traditional statistics can be very misleading. For instance, earlier in 2009 the developer at the Hilton went bankrupt and his 140+ units were foreclosed. That significantly skewed our statistics.
On a more postive note, at the end of 2009 the Tara Estate sold for $28M, and we had several sales in December above $10M. The reported December increase in median sales prices can be attributed to those sales.
To add some more twists and turns… our MLS system changed mid-year to clarify foreclosure and short-sale listings. It will be impossible to give a true report of year-end statistics for short sale and foreclosure listings as there was no consistent methodology used prior to May.
Here’s the big picture, as officially reported:
Kauai MLS Real Estate Statistics:
- Kauai REO and Short Sale Statistics June-Dec 09
- Kauai Foreclosure and Short Sales 2009 Year-End Report
Brain freeze yet? Feel like you just drank a 32 oz slurpee from 7 Eleven??
But wait, there’s more! Let’s look at the Kauai real estate market from a Quantum Physics perspective. As there are multiple realities in today’s market… below $500K and above $1M are two different worlds.
It can be mind-numbing and hard to figure out what’s relevant to you. Best strategy is to pay close attention to saturation rates in your market segment. Whether buying or selling, it shows how much competition you have.