Yesterday was Groundhog Day. As the rest of the country counts days until Spring, on Kauai we only experience a slight shift of 3-5 degrees with a little more rain, wetter and a bit cooler… nothing newsworthy.
But we’ve historically felt seasonal changes in the Kauai real estate market. When Punxsutawney Phil poked his head up on the beach, did he see buyers?
Kauai real estate’s buying season used to begin mid-March and go through end of summer. In recent years, that hasn’t been as evident due to the national financial crisis. Buying activity on Kauai has been following the economic “mood” of the country.
On the islands, we have our own real estate “Punxsutawney Phil“… Dr. Paul Brewbaker of TZ Economics, a leading economist for the State of Hawaii. Our yearly Groundhog Day for Kauai Real Estate is at the annual meeting of the Kauai Board of Realtors. Each year, Paul gives a humorous, detailed and insightful analysis of the current economic market for Kauai and the other islands.
This past August he spoke to the fact that “double dip recession” was basically a ‘sound byte’ and the signs of recovery he predicted in previous years were on their way. For more information and some “flash-backs” to last year’s market;
- State Economists; Double-dip recession unlikely - article from July 2010
- Kauai Real Estate 2009 Year-End Statistics
- Kauai Real Estate Market Update – May 2010
As you can see from this recent Trulia.com analysis of Princeville real estate, our market is following Dr. Brewbaker’s predictions – inventory is reducing and prices are nudging upwards:
When’s the right time to buy? Of course, many personal factors come into play - it has to be the right time for you. But as activity increases, it’s more competitive.
If it works for you financially, now seems to be the ideal time to negotiate. Once the ‘sound bytes’ determine it’s a time to buy – then you’ve missed the opportunity to take advantage of the “down market” and low interest rates.
Buying when values are down -against the grain of activity - isn’t for everyone. But hey, it worked for Warren Buffett, who has said;
- “Buy when others are selling, and sell when others are buying.”
- “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
- “Americans are in a cycle of fear which leads to people not wanting to spend and not wanting to make investments, and that leads to more fear. We’ll break out of it. It takes time.”
- “I am a huge bull on this country. We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”
What’s your opinion – are we coming into a buying season?